Excess containership capacity rather than growth in demand remains a "significant threat" for the shipping industry in the short term.

SeaAxis Macro's quarterly report predicts "stronger conditions" for the shipping industry by mid 2011.

Paris-based author Philippe Hoehlinger states: "The shipping industry is currently midway through a weak six-month period, caused mainly by the traditional seasonal downturn, and partly by the redeployment of idle tonnage.

"Whilst the intra Asia cargo traffic, representing close to one-third of all trade, continues to hold steady, all other east-west cargo traffic and other intra-regional trade is expected to be weak for the next three month period, but should then show signs of recovery."

Looking at the balance between container vessel capacity and shipper demand, Mr Hoehlinger says: "Cargo trade growth - ie demand - is not a threat these days, as it is strongly correlated to real GDP growth, and real GDP growth forecasts are strong, to a revised rate of 4.4% and 4.5% on a global basis for 2011 and 2012 respectively.

"This is primarily driven by so-called emerging countries, of which BRIC countries are the main contributors.

"The current level of real GDP growth historically translates into cargo trade growth of around 11% per year."

He adds that the main threat remains the growth in available vessel capacity, highlighting four key areas:

Capacity to be delivered is likely to increase after an unusually weak capacity delivery pace in the last three months, while slow steaming seems to have reached a plateau.

Cancellations and postponements of vessel orders have stopped, while the lay up of vessels has started decreasing.

He continues: "All trends remaining constant, the vessel capacity oversupply situation will reach its peak at the end of the first quarter of 2011 and will then gradually recover but not entirely until the end of 2011.

There are significant uncertainties that remain and could further worsen the oversupply situation, such as pace of vessel container capacity and laying up of vessels."